Democratic Presidential primary running a bit thin with you? This crackerjack analysis comes from Susan Perkins Weston, a middle-Georgia native now living in Kentucky and who is not afraid to use some simple arithmetic to cut through the mystifying fantasyland.
Here’s this afternoon’s fun with a spreadsheet.
Whoever wins pledged delegates will get enough super-delegates to get the nomination.
There will be 3,256 pledged delegates, so whoever gets 1,629 wins them, wins super-delegates, and gets the nomination.
Today, Obama needs 212 to get there, and Clinton needs 378.
Tuesday, if they split Pennsylvania’s delegates 45/55 in her favor, he’ll need 141, and she’ll need 291. He’ll need 34% of the remaining, and she’ll need 71%. She’ll need twice as many as he does.
If they keep up the same margin through May 6 (North Carolina and Indiana), he’ll need 55, and she’ll need 185. He’ll need 25% of the remaining, and shell need 84%. She’ll need more than three times as many as he does to win the pledged delegate majority.
And that’s a conservative estimate. Indiana will be closer than 45/55 and North Carolina is likely to be 55/45 for Obama.
May 7, I think the dominoes start falling fast. The power players say it’s over. Ed Rendell decides he’d rather be a Democrat than a Clinton. The super-delegates decide it’s safe to speak up and dangerous not to. The big donors tell Clinton she’ll have to fund any further campaigning out of her own $109 million, and that if she doesn’t get out now, she’ll have to pay for her own Senate race.
This scenario is by Susan Perkins Weston, who lives in Danville, Ky. She is a graduate of Central High School in Macon, Ga., Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, and Yale Law School in Connecticut. After law school, she worked for the Pennsylvania Office of Consumer Advocate and the U. S. Department of Education. She formerly served as Executive Director of the Kentucky Association of School Councils. She continues to be an education advocate in lucky Kentucky. Mrs. Weston is the niece of Tina Simms, a recurring character in my blog, and who belongs to a large family of achievers.
Lastly, I want to mention Andrew Jackson of Tennessee. The Democratic Party came into existence because he believed he was denied nomination as President due to a “corrupt bargain” in favor of John Quincy Adams, son of a President, and the actual author of the Monroe Doctrine, which should be known as the John Quincy Adams Doctrine, except for the fact that J.Q. was only Secretary of State. At any rate, Jackson went off and formed his own political party and became a major President of the United States. John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts did not even get credit for the Monroe Doctrine.
Copyright 2008 by William C. Cotter
Monday, April 21, 2008
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4 comments:
After Texas, you could go to Slate's Delegate Calculator, give Clinton 60% and Obama 40% of all remaining primaries and Obama would still lead in pledged delegates. If the premise that whoever leads in pledged delegates wins the superdelegates and is ergo the nominee is TRUE, then Susan's math controls this (real?) world we all share and Obama is the nominee. But the Clintons inhabit a world in which 1. Superdelegates can vote for whomever they believe can win the general election, irregardless of the primaries 2. Popular vote matters more than delegate vote. 3. Pledged delegates do not have to remain loyal to the candidate to whom they are pledged. 4. Electoral votes in states won are the true barometer. 5. Florida and Michigan cannot be disenfranchised and must be counted. 6. Last night on Larry King Hillary said superdelegates should vote their "feelings". The Clintons have publicly stated that all of the above constitute considerations of won/lost. Those of us who share the world where the rules were laid out at the outset, the conditions for victory, etc., believe we shall win the day, and if things go awry, we'll...what?... call the cops...?(yeah, like in Fla. 4 years ago?) And WHO ARE THE COPS? The DNC? While Howard Dean runs around like a batboy who can't remember where the dugout is? Nancy Pelosi, who a few weeks back said "supers should vote to affirm the primaries"...then she got a nasty letter from democratic bigwig moneypeople who threatened to cut off money supply, so she backtracked and said "supers can vote for whomever they want to." Then Pelosi formed a group of supers who are pledged to affirm the primaries with their vote, and so far she has managed to recruit an unimpressive 8 supers. Should we appeal to Harold Ickes (head of the credentials committee who will or won't seat Fla. and Mich.) hoping for some fairplay...even though he is a chief Clinton operative? ARE THE SUPERDELEGATES AFRAID OF THE CLINTONS? Do they believe the Clintons are more powerful than they are? In this world where perception can sometimes morph into reality, pundits favorable and unfavorable to Obama are saying this morning, "Pennsylvania will determine who the democratic nominee will be..." NONSENSE....but if Clinton supporters believe this...if they will defect in the general if the supers step in now (prematurely?)...will Obama lose without the Clinton supporters...If the supers don't stop it now, will Obama lose because she gets 3 more months to slime him? If Obama loses, will Hillary rejoice, knowing she can go up against McCain in 2012? And, lastly, are you all just really happy you don't live in my head?
I have been following some of the Adams series on cable tv. Adams' reacions to the French were funny. I did not know that the Monroe doctrine was actually the Adams doctrine---such is the fickle finger of fate.
Probably I was dropped on the left side of my head as an infant, but understanding math beyond the simplest arithmetic is pretty much like my trying to discuss chemistry with somebody in Hungarian. (I don't do chemistry either.) Nevertheless I understand the idea of one number being larger than another and Obama's numbers are larger than Clinton's. With that in mind, I sent Obama some more money. :-)
Bill,
I'm glad you enjoyed those numbers.
MSNBC projects a minimum of 65 Pennsylvania delegates for Obama, with 18 they aren't willing to call. If he gets 7 of those, he'll have 1,481, and need just 138.
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