Remember John Quincy Adams

Democratic Presidential primary running a bit thin with you? This crackerjack analysis comes from Susan Perkins Weston, a middle-Georgia native now living in Kentucky and who is not afraid to use some simple arithmetic to cut through the mystifying fantasyland.

Here’s this afternoon’s fun with a spreadsheet.

Whoever wins pledged delegates will get enough super-delegates to get the nomination.

There will be 3,256 pledged delegates, so whoever gets 1,629 wins them, wins super-delegates, and gets the nomination.

Today, Obama needs 212 to get there, and Clinton needs 378.

Tuesday, if they split Pennsylvania’s delegates 45/55 in her favor, he’ll need 141, and she’ll need 291. He’ll need 34% of the remaining, and she’ll need 71%. She’ll need twice as many as he does.

If they keep up the same margin through May 6 (North Carolina and Indiana), he’ll need 55, and she’ll need 185. He’ll need 25% of the remaining, and shell need 84%. She’ll need more than three times as many as he does to win the pledged delegate majority.

And that’s a conservative estimate. Indiana will be closer than 45/55 and North Carolina is likely to be 55/45 for Obama.

May 7, I think the dominoes start falling fast. The power players say it’s over. Ed Rendell decides he’d rather be a Democrat than a Clinton. The super-delegates decide it’s safe to speak up and dangerous not to. The big donors tell Clinton she’ll have to fund any further campaigning out of her own $109 million, and that if she doesn’t get out now, she’ll have to pay for her own Senate race.

This scenario is by Susan Perkins Weston, who lives in Danville, Ky. She is a graduate of Central High School in Macon, Ga., Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, and Yale Law School in Connecticut. After law school, she worked for the Pennsylvania Office of Consumer Advocate and the U. S. Department of Education. She formerly served as Executive Director of the Kentucky Association of School Councils. She continues to be an education advocate in lucky Kentucky. Mrs. Weston is the niece of Tina Simms, a recurring character in my blog, and who belongs to a large family of achievers.

Lastly, I want to mention Andrew Jackson of Tennessee. The Democratic Party came into existence because he believed he was denied nomination as President due to a “corrupt bargain” in favor of John Quincy Adams, son of a President, and the actual author of the Monroe Doctrine, which should be known as the John Quincy Adams Doctrine, except for the fact that J.Q. was only Secretary of State. At any rate, Jackson went off and formed his own political party and became a major President of the United States. John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts did not even get credit for the Monroe Doctrine.

Copyright 2008 by William C. Cotter